شاخص‌های بارشی آشکارکننده تغییر اقلیم در محدوده سایت‌های پایش زوال بلوط در استان چهار محال و بختیاری

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استادیار، بخش تحقیقات بیابان موسسه تحقیقات جنگلها و مراتع کشور ،سازمان تحقیقات ،آموزش و ترویج کشاورزی ، تهران، ایران.

2 دانشیار، بخش جنگل مؤسسۀ تحقیقات جنگل‌ها و مراتع کشور، سازمان تحقیقات، آموزش و ترویج کشاورزی، تهران، ایران

3 استادیار، بخش تحقیقات بیابان، مؤسسۀ تحقیقات جنگل‌ها و مراتع کشور، سازمان تحقیقات، آموزش و ترویج کشاورز، تهران، ایران

چکیده

یکی از مهمترین عوامل موثر بر خشکیدگی و زوال جنگل‌های زاگرس رخداد تغییر اقلیم است. وقوع بارش‌های سیل‌آسا و خشکسالی‌های شدید، اکوسیستم‌های جنگلی را با تنش مواجه و زمینه را برای فعالیت آفات و بیمای‌ها و در نتییجه زوال و خشکیدگی فراهم می‌کنند. در این مطاله هدف بررسی شاخص‌های بارشی استاندارد جهانی آشکارکننده تغییر اقلیم در محدوده سایت‌های پایش زوال بلوط در استان چهارمحال و بختیاری است. برای این منظور از داده‌های بارش روزانه نزدیکترین ایستگاه‌های سینوپتیک به سایت‌های پایش زوال برای دوره آماری 1991- 2019 استفاده شد. داده‌ها از نظر کیفیت و همگنی بررسی و آماده ورود به مدل شدند. برای اجرای مدل از نرم افزار ClimPACT در محیط R استفاده شد. از بین 61 شاخص خروجی هشت شاخص بارشی آشکارکننده رخداد تغییر اقلیم شامل:PRCPTOT, CDD, CWD, R10mm, R10mm, RX1day, RX2day, RX5day استخراج شد. بر روی شاخص‌ها شیب روند تغییرات، خطای شیب روند و معنی داری تغییرات با سطح اطمینان 95% محاسبه و بررسی شد. نتایح نشان داد باوجود نوسانات و بی‌نظمی موجود در سری داده‌ها براساس چهار شاخص بارش سالانه، روزهای مرطوب متوالی، بارش سنگین و فوق سنگین همه سایت‌های پایش زوال بلوط یک دوره کم بارشی طولانی در فاصله 2006 تا 2019 را تجربه کرده‌اند که این این سیکل طولانی کم بارشی نسبت به بارش بلندمدت منطقه در کنار سایر عوامل می‌تواند یکی از کلیدی ترین عوامل موثردر زوال و خشکیدگی بلوط زاگرس در استان چهار محال و بختیاری باشد که زمینه را برای آفت و بیماری‌ ها مساعد نموده باشد

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Precipitation indicators of climate change in decline monitoring sites in Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari province

نویسندگان [English]

  • Fatemeh Dargahian 1
  • Mehdi Pourhashemi 2
  • Samaneh Razavizadeh 3
1 Assist., Prof., , Desert Research Division, Research Institute of Forests and Rangelands, Agricultural Research Education and Extension Organization (AREEO), Tehran, I.R. Iran
2 Assoc., Prof., Research Institute of Forests and Rangelands, Agricultural Research, Education and Extension Organization (AREEO), Tehran, I.R. Iran
3 Assist., Prof., Research Institute of Forests and Rangelands, Agricultural Research Education and Extension Organization (AREEO), Tehran, I.R. Iran
چکیده [English]

One of the most important factors affecting the Drought and decay of Zagros forests is the occurrence of climate change. Occurrence of torrential rains and severe droughts puts forest ecosystems under stress and provides a breeding ground for pests and diseases, resulting in degradation and drought. The aim of this study is to investigate the precipitation indices of the global standard for climate change detection in decay monitoring sites in Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari province. For this purpose, daily precipitation data from the nearest synoptic stations to the decay monitoring sites were used for the statistical period of 1991-2019. The data were analyzed for quality and homogeneity and were ready to enter the model. ClimPACT software was used to run the model in R environment. Out of 61 output indices, eight precipitation indices detecting climate change, including: PRCPTOT, CDD, CWD, R10mm, R10mm, RX1day, RX2day, RX5day were extracted. The trend of slope of change, trend slope error and significance of changes were calculated and evaluated on the indicators. The results showed that the annual rainfall fluctuated a lot and between 2006 and 2019, all decay monitoring sites experienced a low rainfall period. Because the study area is located in the second highest rainfall region of the country and benefits from both Mediterranean and Sudanese rainfall systems, the frequency of heavy and super heavy rainfall is high and based on the maximum rainfall indicators of one, two, and five days, there is a potential for heavy flooding in the range of decayed sites. Given the trend of climate change in the current situation and its continuation in the future, recognizing the potential of rainfall and its characteristics can help forest ecosystem managers in the implementation of threat management programs caused by excessive rainfall and flooding and turning it into an opportunity to adapt to climate change in order to preserve and rehabilitate forest trees.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • consecutive dry days
  • consecutive wet days
  • heavy rainfall
  • Zagros decline

مراجع

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نشریه جنگل و فرآورده های چوب
دوره 75، شماره 2
شهریور 1401
صفحه 107-117

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