Performance and Sensitivity of the Delphi and AHP Decision Making Methods to the Response of Experts in Natural Resources Research

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 Ph.D. Candidate, Forest Engineering, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran

2 Assistant Professor, Department of Forestry and Forest Economic, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran

3 Professor, Department of Forestry and Forest Economic, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran

Abstract

In order to achieve a sustainable management and development of natural resources, a set of technical, eco-social, environmental and ecological criteria must be considered in the planning process. An appropriate model is therefore needed to address all the criteria mentioned above, in the decision making process and finally provide a reliable result. In the last few years, analytical hierarchical processes were used increasingly in natural resources research. The question is, can the method be used in such research and would the output be applicable? Delphi and AHP methods were used to conduct a multi-criteria based forest road planning. The order of ranked criteria in both methods were investigated and compared. According to the obtained data from participants different ratings for the criteria in the two different methods were recognized. However, average rating (overall weight of each criterion) showed that the four most important criteria out of the eight criteria were ranked in the same order in these two methods, but the priority levels 5, 6, 7, and 8 were ranked differently in the two methods. According to the results, variances among the experts during the Delphi process were noticeably reduced because it is performed in three rounds so that it can lead to a consensus within the panel of experts. However, results of performing AHP showed that this method is so sensitive to the experts’ responses, thus the output cannot be easily used in practice. Therefore, researcher should care more when using this method or its output and, similarly, experts when rating criteria by this method.

Keywords

References

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Forest and Wood Products
Volume 67, Issue 2 - Serial Number 2
September 2014
Pages 173-186

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