کاربرد شبکه عصبی مصنوعی و رگرسیون حداقل مربعات معمولی در مدلسازی تغییرات کاربری سرزمین

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی کارشناس‌ارشد GIS و سنجش از دور، دانشکدة علوم زمین، دانشگاه شهید چمران اهواز، اهواز، ایران

2 دانشیار، گروه GIS و سنجش از دور، دانشکدة علوم زمین، دانشگاه شهید چمران اهواز، اهواز، ایران

3 مربی، گروه GIS و سنجش از دور، دانشکدة علوم زمین، دانشگاه شهید چمران اهواز، اهواز، ایران

4 دانشجوی دکترای، گروه جنگلداری و اقتصاد جنگل، دانشکدة منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه تهران، کرج، ایرا

چکیده

با توجه به اهمیت بالای اثر تغییرات کاربری سرزمین در آینده، لازم است الگوی رشد و تغییر کاربری‌ها قبل از اتخاذ هر گونه تصمیمی به مسئولان و تصمیم‌گیرندگان امور مربوط ارائه شود. هدف این پژوهش مدل‌سازی تغییرات کاربری سرزمین در منطقة کوهمره سرخی استان فارس با استفاده از روش رگرسیون حداقل مربعات معمولی برای پیش‌پردازش متغیرها و مدل‌سازی با استفاده از شبکة عصبی است. بدین منظور نقشه‌های کاربری سرزمین با استفاده از تصاویر لندست در سال‌های 1366، 1379 و 1391 تهیه شد. سپس، صحت‌سنجی نقشه‌ها و آشکارسازی تغییرات انجام شد. نتایج آشکارسازی تغییرات دورة اول (1366-1379) با ضریب کاپای 83% نشان داد بیشترین افزایش مساحت در ناحیة مرتع (24/4224 هکتار) و بیشترین کاهش مساحت در ناحیة جنگل (75/3953 هکتار) رخ داده است. بر مبنای این تغییرات و انتخاب بهترین ترکیب برای متغیرها، مدل‌سازی پتانسیل تبدیل کاربری برای سال 1391، با استفاده از روش شبکة عصبی پرسپترون چندلایه انجام شد. سپس، با روش زنجیرة مارکوف، نقشة کاربری سرزمین برای سال 1391 پیش‌بینی شد. نتیجة ماتریس خطا بین نقشة حاصل از مدل‌سازی و نقشة کاربری سرزمین سال 1391، ضریب کاپای 75% است. در مرحلة بعد، نتایج آشکارسازی تغییرات دورة دوم (1379-1391) با ضریب کاپای 88% نشان داد بیشترین افزایش مساحت در ناحیة مرتع (82/1871 هکتار)، همچنین بیشترین کاهش مساحت در ناحیة جنگل (05/3082 هکتار) رخ داده است. با توجه به تغییرات دورة دوم، نقشة کاربری سرزمین برای سال 1403 پیش‌بینی شد که بیشترین تغییر کاربری نسبت به سال 1391، در ناحیة کشاورزی آبی خواهد بود.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Application of artificial neural network and ordinary least squares regression in modeling land use changes

نویسندگان [English]

  • sara azizi ghalaty 1
  • Kazem Rangzan 2
  • Ayub Taghizadeh 3
  • Shahram Ahmadi 4
1 MSc. Student of GIS and Remote Sensing, Shahid Chamran University, Ahvaz, I.R. Iran
2 Associate Professor of GIS and Remote Sensing, Shahid Chamran University, Ahvaz, I.R. Iran
3 Instructor of GIS and Remote Sensing, Shahid Chamran University, Ahvaz, I.R. Iran
4 PhD. Candidate, College of Agriculture and Natural Resource, University of Tehran, Karaj, I.R. Iran
چکیده [English]

Owing to the vital effects of future land use changes, it is necessary to predict land use growth pattern before any decision making by the authorities and decision makers. Purpose of this research is to model land use change of Kohmare Scorch plain of Shiraz province using Ordinary Least Squares regression (OLS) for pre-processing variables and Modeling using neural networks. To perform this model, the land use maps using Landsat images of the years 1987, 2000 and 2012 were prepared. Next, the validation of classified images and change detection analysis performed. Results of change detection between 1987 and 2000 with accuracy of 83% kappa, shows the greatest increase in rangeland area (4224.24 ha) and the greatest decrease was on forest area (3953.75). Considering these changes, selection of the best combination of explanatory variables, potential land use changes for year 2012 was performed using multi-layer perceptron algorithm of artificial neural network. Next, using Markov chain method the land use map for 2012 was predicted. The error matrix for modeled land use map and that of Landsat image of year 2000 is 75%. Next, the revealed changes for the second period (2000-2012) with Kappa of 88% show greatest increase for rangeland area (1807.02ha). In contrast the greatest decrease was for forest (2132.82). Considering change detection at second period, land use for year 2024 was predicted and result shows that irrigated agriculture would have the greatest change.
 

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • land use change
  • modeling
  • multi-layer perceptron neural network
  • ordinary Least Squares

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